The IFLA (International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions) Summit is underway in Brisbane, and this year’s trend report (Dezuanni & Osman, 2024) has just been released – the first major update in ten years (IFLA, 2024). So I thought I’d post some thoughts as I read through it (life long learning at work!).

The report was written by Professor Michael Dezuanni, who researches “digital media, literacies and learning” (Queensland University of Technology (QUT), 2024b) and Dr Kim Osman, who researches “the complex relationship between digital and social inclusion” (QUT, 2024a): so there’s a strong focus on the impact of digital technologies in both their backgrounds. The interaction of technological advances, equity and culture is a significant theme in this report.

I’ll post some notes on each of the seven trends, below. The report starts with a handy executive summary for anyone who wants to skip there (pp. 4–5). Dezuanni & Osman present each trend in bite-sized chunks – much appreciated!

Trend 1 – Knowledge practices are changing

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• Society is increasingly valuing marginalised and diverse perspectives, e.g. Indigenous oral traditions (pp. 11-12).
• Technology has changed communication, creating new forms, such as short-form video, e.g. TikToks (p. 11).
• Sometimes new technology just perpetuates past power structures (p. 11).
• Technology can also facilitate the spread of misinformation, leading to a greater mistrust of institutions (pp. 12-13).
• Many people get their news from social media. Concerns about equity of access (p. 13).
• Digital sovereignty – nations are increasingly regulating digital use and access. This can help address misinformation, but could also result in state censorship (p. 14).
• Data collection can create personally targeted information; however, this can “appear creepy” (p. 15) – love that phrasing! Like a filter bubble, this could blinker people to the range of information out there.
• Short-form video is taking over social media spaces, replacing snippets from friends and family (e.g. Facebook). This can be a great medium for explanation (p. 15).

Trend 2 – AI and other technologies are transforming society

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• Generative AI (GAI) has great positive potential, e.g. healthcare. However, it could also be perpetuate current biases, if its training data is not diverse (p. 18).
• GAI presents challenges with copyright – individual intellectual copyright versus technological innovation. Increasing government regulation (p. 19).
• Deepfakes are a particular challenge, creating misinformation and distrust. Further education in media literacy will be needed (p. 19-20).
• By 2040, most people will use “augmented-reality and mixed-reality tools” (Anderson & Rainie, 2022, as cited in Dezuanni & Osman, 2024, p. 20). While these are useful, there are concerns re: privacy and equity of access (p. 21).
• Internet speeds will continue to improve, but the digital divide between the wealthiest and poorest countries will increase (p. 21).
• More ‘digital twins’ (copies of real life objects, places or organisations) are being created, e.g. the island of Tuvalu, which will have a virtual presence. More privacy concerns (pp. 22-23).
• Organisations will need improved security to guard against large scale cyber-attacks (p. 23).

Trend 3 – Trust is being renegotiated

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• “[T]ransparency and openness” are important for reversing society’s increasing distrust of institutions (p. 25).
• People need more of a voice, and governments need to tackle long term problems and fight corruption (p. 26).
• Businesses are more trusted than government. Media and social media are distrusted. The more marginalised you are, the more likely you are to distrust mainstream media (p. 26).
• Disadvantaged places are often ‘news deserts’. This erodes accountability for and trust in local institutions (pp. 26-27).
• Open access to information is challenged by the proliferation of paywalls, e.g. for academic articles (pp. 27-28).
• We expect more transparency about our data and how it’s used. More and more personal data is being collected (p. 28).
• We need more education in how to negotiate privacy online (p. 29). Some scary dystopian predictions on this page!
• Libraries are an important source of free access to information, as well as media literacy (p. 29).

Trend 4 – Skills and abilities are becoming more complex

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• Greater digital skills, as well as creativity, will be required from more people (p. 30).
• Over the next five years, a lot of jobs will be lost and new ones created. Digital upskilling will be needed, particularly for librarians, who will be guiding communities through this change (p. 31).
• Media and information literacy is critical (p. 32)
• There are more digital scams, and disadvantaged people are particularly vulnerable (p. 33).
• Libraries have an important role in promoting information literacy (p. 33).

Trend 5 – Digital technologies are unevenly distributed

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• Many people have insufficient digital access; this needs to be addressed to increase equality. Digital inclusion includes access to and affordability of digital devices and services, as well as skills (p. 34).
• The digital divide is getting worse, particularly in more rural areas; conversely, digital support could ameliorate problems caused by isolation, e.g. teacher shortages (p. 35).
• Libraries are important places for people to access free devices and wifi. Digitally excluded people are often dependent on mobile devices (p.36).
• Some individuals and countries don’t have the resources to support Generative AI (GAI). This will open up another area of digital divide (p. 36).
• Many businesses and government services can only be easily accessed online. Some governments provide digital identities so citizens can more easily access online services (p. 37).
• Data and information are organised in unfair ways that reflect “Western, colonial oppressive systems” (p. 37).
• Data collection and use needs to be more inclusive (p. 38).

Trend 6 – Information systems are using more resources

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• Digital information technology has significant environmental costs, increasing our carbon footprint and creating e-waste (pp. 39-40).
• A circular economy (reduce, reuse, recycle, and rewilding) is one possible solution (p. 41).
• Some countries are regulating for a greener digital environment (p. 41).

Trend 7 – People are seeking community connections

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• Social isolation is increasing. This should be addressed in a localised way so particular communities’ needs are met (p. 43).
• Libraries are good places for community social events (p. 44).
• Online connections, such as in gaming groups, continue to grow (p. 44).
• Flexible work, e.g. working from home, remains popular, enabling people to strengthen community ties (p. 45).

References

Anderson, J., & Rainie, L. (2022, June 30). The metaverse in 2040. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2022/06/30/the-metaverse-in-2040/

Dezuanni, M., & Osman, K. (2024). IFLA trend report 2024: Phase 1. Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology. https://www.ifla.org/wp-content/uploads/ifla-trend-report-2024.pdf

International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions. (2024, September 30). Facing the future with confidence: IFLA trend report 2024 launched. https://www.ifla.org/news/trend-report-2024-report-launched/

Queensland University of Technology. (2024a, October 1). Dr Kim Osman. https://www.qut.edu.au/about/our-people/academic-profiles/kim.osman

Queensland University of Technology. (2024b, October 1). Professor Michael Dezuanni. https://www.qut.edu.au/about/our-people/academic-profiles/m.dezuanni

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Background image via Canva.